My research lies in Labor Economics, Demography, Immigration, and Public Policy. I am especially interested in the evaluation of labor market reforms and their distributional effects on workers and families.
This study investigates the impact of a substantial 22.3% increase in Spain's national minimum wage, implemented on January 1, 2019, on job retention and employment. Using individual administrative data and applying a difference-in-differences methodology with inverse probability weighting, the analysis finds no adverse effects of the minimum wage increase on job retention within the same firm or on overall employment permanence. Notably, the findings indicate modest positive effects on employment retention in low-wage regions and among full-time and temporary employees, though these effects are very short-lived. The findings align with theoretical frameworks suggesting that minimum wage increases may not necessarily lead to job losses, and they resonate with broader literature indicating neutral employment effects, especially for lower-income groups.
Published International Journal of Manpower
Unemployment benefits and job finding: Evidence from Spain's policy reforms across the business cycle
Purpose — This article analyses how unemployment benefit generosity affects benefit duration by exploiting two opposing policy reforms carried out in Spain – one during a deep recession (2012) and the other in a period of strong job growth (2023). Both reforms altered the replacement rate (RR) of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit recipients, with the 2012 cut reducing it after six months of receiving benefit and the 2023 reform increasing it.
Design/methodology/approach — The paper uses universe-level administrative data from the Spanish Public Employment Service. It applies causal survival models (using inverse probability weighting, IPW) to estimate the effects of changes in benefit generosity on unemployment benefit duration. The approach allows for comparative analysis across economic cycles and examines interactions with potential benefit duration. As a robustness check, we estimate a difference-in-differences model.
Findings — The study finds that the 2012 reduction in UI benefits led to a decrease in aggregate benefit duration, while the 2023 increase slightly extended it. However, both reforms produced heterogeneous responses: individuals with medium-to-high benefits and shorter potential durations (and those with the longest entitlements in 2012) reacted more strongly to changes in generosity. Moreover, while the 2012 reform affected prime-age workers across most sectors, the 2023 reform shows more selective effects, concentrated among prime-age workers and those in more skilled jobs. Results confirm that the effects of UI generosity vary across the business cycle – being stronger in recessions and weaker in expansions.
Research limitations/implications — While the study provides evidence on how benefit levels affect unemployment benefit duration, it cannot assess impacts on household income or economic stability due to the absence of household-level data nor does it evaluate post-unemployment job quality in terms of pay, stability or working conditions.
Practical implications — The findings highlight the need for countercyclical UI design that balances efficiency and equity. Reforms should consider heterogeneity among recipients, as groups with higher benefits or shorter entitlements respond more strongly to changes in generosity. Effective UI design requires complementing benefit adjustments with active labour market policies to mitigate disincentive effects. Overall, timing and macroeconomic context are crucial to ensure that UI reforms balance efficiency, equity and fiscal sustainability.
Originality/value — The paper provides novel evidence from Spain by comparing two opposite UI reforms implemented under contrasting macroeconomic conditions within the same institutional framework. It analyses how changes in benefit generosity interact with PBD and differ across economic cycles. This study contributes to the international debate on the optimal design of benefit systems by providing empirical evidence from one of the EU countries with the highest structural unemployment and strong cyclical sensitivity.
Published International Labour Review
The impact of the minimum wage on gross employment flows: An analysis at province level in Spain
This study investigates the effect of the minimum wage on gross employment flows, focusing on hiring and job separations, as well as net employment outcomes. Using aggregate data from an administrative data source covering Spanish provinces from 2015 to 2023, we find a significant negative effect of the minimum wage on hires and separations in provinces where a larger share of minimum wage earners exists. However, the net employment effect, although positive, is close to zero. Furthermore, a rise in the incidence of the minimum wage leads to an increase in hiring and separations among part-time workers, while it reduces them among full-time workers. The effects, although statistically significant, are small and economically negligible.
Work in progress
Work in progress
Eligible but Underserved? Immigrant–Native Gaps in Access to Minimum-Income Support
with Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & José María Arranz
Spain's Ingreso Mínimo Vital (IMV), introduced in 2020, provides last-resort income support to households in severe economic need. This paper examines whether the program reaches immigrant households, who face low income, unstable employment, and child poverty. Using administrative data from the 2016–2023 Spanish Personal Income Tax Panel, we compare native, foreign-born, and mixed households across simulated eligibility, take-up among eligible households, delayed entry, and continued enrollment. Foreign-born households are more likely than native households to satisfy the program's simulated eligibility criteria, but 7–10 percentage points less likely to receive the benefit once eligible. This gap is not fully explained by expected benefit amounts, local networks, observed characteristics, institutional coverage, digital access, or delayed entry. Foreign-born recipients are also less likely to remain enrolled. The findings reveal weaker effective coverage among immigrant households despite greater need, showing how barriers after eligibility can limit the equalizing capacity of minimum-income programs.
Work in progress
Contractual duality and in-work poverty: Causal evidence from a labour market reform
with José María Arranz & Carlos García-Serrano
The December 2021 labour reform introduced significant restrictions on the use of temporary contracts in Spain with the aim of improving job stability for the most vulnerable workers. This study analyses the causal effect of this reform on in-work poverty. To do so, it uses microdata from the Living Conditions Survey (ECV) for the period 2016–2024 and applies the differences-in-differences (DD) methodology. The identification strategy exploits the variation in sectoral exposure to temporary employment prior to the reform by constructing a continuous treatment intensity indicator based on microdata from the Labour Force Survey (EPA) for the period 2017–2019. The results show that sectors with higher pre-reform temporary employment—particularly agriculture, construction, and other services—experienced significantly greater reductions in the probability of in-work poverty than sectors with lower temporary employment: 1.3 percentage points for every additional 10 points of prior sectoral share of temporary employment. Furthermore, the reform also had a positive impact on employment intensity and on the income of households with wage-earning workers.
